Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 4657 at 09:55, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4657 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 09:55	SFO 11:43	13%	12%	4.1%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ASE 08:46 → DEN 10:06UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest	3h 19m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	7h 23m	100%	80%
United Details →	ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	6h 34m	96%	79%
United Details →	ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123	6h 46m	97%	79%
United Details →	ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Denver	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	6h 58m	97%	77%
United Details →	ASE 08:16 → LAX 09:38UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Los Angeles	LAX 13:26 → SFO 15:01UA 469	7h 45m	99%	75%
United Details →	ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	7h 33m	97%	74%
United Details →	ASE 13:22 → IAH 17:21UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Houston	IAH 19:34 → SFO 21:43UA 1202	9h 21m	93%	74%
American Details →	ASE 07:25 → DFW 10:36AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:19 → SFO 15:12AA 2325	8h 47m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON