tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Seattle, leaving 14:38, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 3h 00m Seattle SEA 19:49 → ANC 22:53DL 2367 12h 15m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 2h 15m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 11h 13m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → ANC 16:57DL 411 11h 02m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → ATL 11:02 → DFW 12:25AA 820 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:17 → ANC 19:27AA 399 12h 25m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ATL 13:21 → ORD 14:43UA 745 1h 27m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 10h 33m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 10h 29m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444 3h 46m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 12h 45m 100% 80%
AlaskaDetails → ATL 16:18 → SEA 18:46AS 218 3h 17m Seattle SEA 22:03 → ANC 00:50 +1AS 1490 12h 32m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ATL 08:54 → SEA 11:20AS 348 51m Seattle SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:58AS 1434 10h 04m 73% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON