Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3059 ATL 09:58 → AVL 11:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3101 ATL 16:10 → AVL 17:20 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3059 Delta	ATL 09:58	AVL 11:08	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3077 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	AVL 09:16	9%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 3099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:53	AVL 15:02	9%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 1182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:16	AVL 13:12	11%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 3116 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:28	AVL 21:38	12%	3%	0.8%	82%
DL 3101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:10	AVL 17:20	14%	3%	0.8%	82%
DL 5121 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 17:02	AVL 18:10	49%	23%	2.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON