Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 186 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 186 ATL 07:08 → BNA 07:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 3142 ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 186 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:08	BNA 07:17	3%	1%	0.6%	89%
DL 3069 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:31	BNA 08:41	5%	1%	0.7%	93%
DL 1155 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:57	BNA 10:09	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 4862 Southwest	ATL 11:34	BNA 11:43	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2867 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	BNA 11:30	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 3121 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	BNA 23:15	9%	2%	0.6%	80%
WN 464 Southwest	ATL 21:54	BNA 22:04	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 3002 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:24	BNA 20:38	11%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 3159 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:54	BNA 14:03	12%	3%	0.7%	79%
DL 790 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:26	BNA 14:39	12%	3%	0.7%	67%
DL 1490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:20	BNA 19:38	13%	4%	0.7%	73%
DL 3142 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:13	BNA 15:26	13%	3%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON