Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1384 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11%.

Safest bet that day DL 1384 ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1408 ATL 11:45 → BUF 13:53 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1384 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:10	BUF 11:11	6%	1%	0.6%	89%
DL 2266 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:00	BUF 16:03	7%	2%	0.7%	82%
DL 2050 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:33	BUF 18:41	11%	3%	0.8%	75%
DL 2334 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:52	BUF 23:59	11%	3%	0.7%	77%
F9 1408 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:45	BUF 13:53	18%	6%	1.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON