Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 255 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 255 ATL 08:04 → BWI 10:06 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2634 ATL 16:30 → BWI 18:33 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 255 Southwest	ATL 08:04	BWI 10:06	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1592 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	BWI 09:24	5%	1%	0.6%	89%
DL 801 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	BWI 10:47	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 1933 Southwest	ATL 10:53	BWI 12:55	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	BWI 13:01	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 665 Southwest	ATL 13:17	BWI 15:19	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:02	BWI 15:53	10%	3%	0.7%	81%
F9 2510 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:23	BWI 09:41	10%	4%	1.1%	69%
DL 1257 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:30	BWI 21:26	13%	4%	0.7%	70%
DL 1267 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	BWI 17:15	14%	4%	0.7%	69%
WN 1448 Southwest	ATL 16:49	BWI 18:50	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2928 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	BWI 18:41	15%	4%	0.7%	72%
F9 4712 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:17	BWI 23:17	22%	10%	1.1%	46%
F9 2634 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:30	BWI 18:33	25%	11%	1.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON