Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5475 ATL 07:29 → CHS 08:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 3179 ATL 17:44 → CHS 18:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5475 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 07:29	CHS 08:44	5%	1%	0.7%	96%
DL 3091 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:00	CHS 10:13	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 3107 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:46	CHS 12:00	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 1381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:40	CHS 15:53	7%	1%	0.7%	84%
DL 2179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:31	CHS 13:42	8%	1%	0.6%	87%
DL 2174 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:59	CHS 17:16	10%	1%	0.6%	82%
DL 2493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:33	CHS 20:49	11%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	CHS 00:26	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 3179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:44	CHS 18:59	11%	2%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON