Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1500 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1500 ATL 07:25 → CLE 09:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4036 ATL 18:56 → CLE 20:52 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	CLE 09:10	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 2978 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	CLE 11:32	9%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 775 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:50	CLE 13:32	11%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 2545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:36	CLE 15:20	13%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 1339 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:40	CLE 22:35	14%	5%	1.1%	78%
DL 1320 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	CLE 00:49	15%	4%	1.0%	79%
DL 2150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:22	CLE 21:15	17%	5%	1.5%	70%
DL 1350 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:51	CLE 18:41	19%	6%	1.1%	79%
F9 4036 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:56	CLE 20:52	28%	12%	2.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON