Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1479 ATL 07:30 → CMH 09:02 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1545 ATL 19:54 → CMH 21:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	CMH 09:02	3%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 1522 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	CMH 11:48	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:06	CMH 13:38	8%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:21	CMH 16:03	9%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 1459 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	CMH 00:24	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:32	CMH 22:16	10%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:25	CMH 19:03	10%	4%	0.7%	74%
DL 1545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	CMH 21:33	11%	4%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON