Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 833 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 833 ATL 06:28 → DAL 07:34 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2780 ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 833 Southwest	ATL 06:28	DAL 07:34	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	DAL 09:21	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 1294 Southwest	ATL 09:54	DAL 11:02	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 754 Southwest	ATL 13:44	DAL 14:53	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:59	DAL 15:03	13%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	DAL 22:25	14%	4%	0.7%	82%
WN 4992 Southwest	ATL 16:23	DAL 17:33	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:44	DAL 17:54	17%	4%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON