Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4707 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day YX 4707 ATL 06:07 → DCA 08:16 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 727 ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4707 Republic	ATL 06:07	DCA 08:16	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	DCA 09:16	7%	2%	0.8%	85%
WN 2773 Southwest	ATL 09:24	DCA 11:11	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	DCA 11:27	9%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 5306 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 09:01	DCA 11:00	10%	5%	1.6%	93%
MQ 3881 Envoy	ATL 11:09	DCA 13:13	11%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 1798 Delta	ATL 10:58	DCA 12:47	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 4735 Republic	ATL 20:24	DCA 22:25	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 537 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:59	DCA 23:52	14%	6%	0.8%	70%
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 14:08	DCA 16:16	15%	6%	1.0%	21%
WN 3059 Southwest	ATL 20:14	DCA 22:01	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
YX 4576 Republic	ATL 16:29	DCA 18:29	16%	6%	1.1%	no record
WN 1376 Southwest	ATL 16:08	DCA 17:55	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:55	DCA 22:48	18%	7%	0.8%	66%
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:09	DCA 14:56	19%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:55	DCA 20:47	21%	7%	0.8%	60%
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	DCA 17:30	21%	7%	0.8%	58%
DL 950 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	DCA 18:37	21%	7%	0.8%	65%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	DCA 19:48	22%	8%	0.8%	59%
DL 727 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	DCA 21:49	23%	8%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON