Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 346 at 08:12 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 346 ATL 08:12 → DEN 09:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 609 ATL 16:25 → DEN 17:35 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:12	DEN 09:36	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 204 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:05	DEN 08:07	8%	1%	0.6%	89%
UA 340 United Flight history →	ATL 08:46	DEN 10:14	10%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 995 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:54	DEN 11:05	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 110 Southwest	ATL 12:43	DEN 13:51	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:55	DEN 14:00	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1327 United Flight history →	ATL 11:10	DEN 12:27	12%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 530 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	DEN 14:58	15%	2%	0.6%	81%
F9 1449 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DEN 09:03	15%	4%	0.8%	69%
DL 746 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	DEN 20:43	16%	3%	0.6%	70%
WN 206 Southwest	ATL 18:45	DEN 20:00	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 3599 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:30	DEN 22:05	18%	6%	0.9%	64%
DL 493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:02	DEN 16:28	18%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 519 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:43	DEN 17:56	19%	3%	0.7%	69%
UA 609 United	ATL 16:25	DEN 17:35	19%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON