Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 961 at 09:52 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 961 ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 3097 ATL 17:14 → DFW 18:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 961 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:52	DFW 11:12	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 839 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DFW 08:54	9%	2%	0.7%	80%
AA 1567 American Flight history →	ATL 08:22	DFW 09:55	9%	4%	0.8%	87%
DL 818 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	DFW 00:13	11%	4%	0.8%	80%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:28	DFW 12:44	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 820 American Flight history →	ATL 11:02	DFW 12:26	12%	6%	0.8%	84%
AA 1276 American Flight history →	ATL 12:26	DFW 13:50	12%	6%	0.8%	83%
DL 3161 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:13	DFW 21:35	14%	4%	0.8%	55%
DL 921 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	DFW 15:45	15%	4%	0.7%	75%
AA 3104 American Flight history →	ATL 15:05	DFW 16:34	15%	6%	0.8%	78%
DL 1827 Delta	ATL 17:43	DFW 19:03	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1008 American Flight history →	ATL 16:19	DFW 17:49	18%	7%	1.0%	76%
AA 2398 American	ATL 17:33	DFW 19:05	18%	6%	1.1%	no record
F9 1269 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:35	DFW 12:04	19%	10%	0.9%	64%
F9 3097 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:14	DFW 18:45	25%	12%	1.1%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON