tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1002 Delta Flight history → ATL 12:15 ELP 13:20 13% 3% 0.7% 84%
DL 1713 Delta Flight history → ATL 19:39 ELP 20:50 20% 4% 0.7% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ATL 07:05 → DEN 08:07WN 204 2h 51m Denver DEN 10:58 → ELP 12:52WN 3384 7h 47m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532 2h 34m Houston IAH 10:49 → ELP 11:51UA 6309 · flown by Mesa 6h 46m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:46 → DEN 10:14UA 340 1h 24m Denver DEN 11:38 → ELP 13:34UA 2128 6h 48m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → ATL 15:57 → IAH 17:23UA 3992 · flown by Mesa 2h 34m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 7h 04m 93% 74%
UnitedDetails → ATL 11:37 → IAH 12:47UA 425 1h 33m Houston IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 48m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:53 → ELP 11:44AA 1658 5h 22m 90% 71%
AmericanDetails → ATL 11:02 → DFW 12:26AA 820 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:10 → ELP 16:05AA 1681 7h 03m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → ATL 16:55 → LAX 18:42AA 2221 1h 11m Los Angeles LAX 19:53 → ELP 23:01AA 4905 · flown by SkyWest 8h 06m 85% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON