Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 2615 at 18:16, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2615 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:16	FSD 19:56	8%	3%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 22:05 → FSD 23:06DL 1694	6h 28m	99%	89%
American Details →	ATL 11:02 → DFW 12:26AA 820	3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:46 → FSD 18:23AA 3820 · flown by Envoy	8h 21m	99%	88%
United Details →	ATL 08:46 → DEN 10:14UA 340	3h 26m Denver	DEN 13:40 → FSD 16:23UA 5378 · flown by SkyWest	8h 37m	100%	88%
American Details →	ATL 12:26 → DFW 13:50AA 1276	3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:32 → FSD 19:58AA 2937	8h 32m	98%	73%
United Details →	ATL 13:21 → ORD 14:43UA 745	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 16:00 → FSD 17:53UA 4404 · flown by GoJet	5h 32m	94%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON