Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:18 am at Atlanta)

Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 837 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	HNL 13:20	17%	3%	0.1%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54DL 1646	1h 36m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307	13h 07m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312	12h 18m	94%	81%
United Details →	ATL 08:37 → DEN 09:49UA 340	2h 11m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	12h 36m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	12h 04m	96%	79%
United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	1h 55m Houston	IAH 10:10 → HNL 13:26UA 253	12h 21m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	3h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	13h 28m	98%	78%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:15 → HNL 12:11AA 115	12h 10m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	2h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	12h 37m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ATL 07:02 → SEA 09:08AS 377	58m Seattle	SEA 10:06 → HNL 12:53AS 626	11h 51m	73%	35%
Alaska Details →	ATL 08:54 → SEA 11:20AS 348	50m Seattle	SEA 12:10 → HNL 15:15AS 899	12h 21m	53%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON