Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4930 ATL 07:45 → HPN 10:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 5013 ATL 15:47 → HPN 18:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4930 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 07:45	HPN 10:15	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2973 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:39	HPN 12:12	7%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 5435 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 12:11	HPN 14:42	7%	3%	0.7%	73%
DL 1616 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:59	HPN 22:25	9%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 5013 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 15:47	HPN 18:17	11%	5%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON