Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1708 ATL 09:05 → HSV 09:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3022 ATL 23:00 → HSV 23:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time
Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.

DL 1708 Delta Flight history → ATL 09:05 HSV 09:02 4% 1% 0.5% 91%
DL 2182 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:28 HSV 11:33 5% 1% 0.5% 81%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history → ATL 15:29 HSV 15:29 6% 1% 0.5% 83%
DL 3171 Delta Flight history → ATL 19:00 HSV 19:00 7% 2% 0.5% 79%
DL 3065 Delta Flight history → ATL 17:47 HSV 17:52 8% 2% 0.5% 76%
DL 3022 Delta Flight history → ATL 23:00 HSV 23:01 8% 2% 0.6% 87%
DL 4762 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ATL 13:21 HSV 13:23 27% 11% 0.0% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON