Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1159 at 05:29 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 1159 ATL 05:29 → IAD 07:27 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3692 ATL 22:27 → IAD 00:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1159 United	ATL 05:29	IAD 07:27	2%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 632 United Flight history →	ATL 09:54	IAD 11:50	5%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 1324 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:43	IAD 09:26	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1444 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	IAD 11:37	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2135 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:17	IAD 14:01	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 1831 United Flight history →	ATL 14:41	IAD 16:35	8%	3%	0.5%	78%
UA 2131 United	ATL 19:24	IAD 21:12	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1695 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:59	IAD 16:46	9%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 1309 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:05	IAD 19:54	9%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 2549 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:53	IAD 00:41	10%	2%	0.6%	75%
F9 4410 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:13	IAD 17:14	16%	7%	0.7%	67%
F9 3692 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:27	IAD 00:35	16%	8%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON