Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 3125 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 3125 ATL 07:30 → IND 09:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 2497 ATL 17:08 → IND 18:58 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3125 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	IND 09:00	4%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 8842 Delta	ATL 10:01	IND 11:39	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	IND 10:33	7%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	IND 12:36	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2657 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:04	IND 00:41	10%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 3134 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:48	IND 15:19	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 1482 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:51	IND 22:27	11%	3%	0.7%	72%
DL 2979 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:01	IND 17:42	12%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 3120 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:35	IND 19:10	14%	3%	0.7%	81%
F9 2497 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:08	IND 18:58	21%	10%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON