Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 9970 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–43%.

Safest bet that day DL 9970 ATL 06:01 → LGA 08:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3454 ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:51 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 9970 Delta	ATL 06:01	LGA 08:20	5%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 404 Delta Flight history →	ATL 06:00	LGA 08:10	5%	2%	1.1%	92%
YX 4809 Republic	ATL 06:11	LGA 08:39	5%	2%	2.0%	no record
DL 323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	LGA 09:39	10%	3%	1.4%	91%
DL 513 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	LGA 10:41	12%	4%	1.6%	88%
YX 4612 Republic	ATL 09:25	LGA 11:50	15%	5%	2.8%	no record
DL 371 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:30	LGA 12:42	17%	4%	2.4%	86%
DL 557 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:30	LGA 11:43	17%	5%	2.4%	85%
DL 520 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:00	LGA 23:24	21%	9%	1.0%	72%
DL 467 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:30	LGA 13:42	22%	7%	2.2%	86%
AA 4600 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 12:01	LGA 14:27	23%	10%	4.7%	77%
DL 490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	LGA 22:27	23%	8%	1.0%	63%
DL 525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:30	LGA 14:50	24%	10%	2.2%	75%
DL 460 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	LGA 15:50	25%	11%	1.5%	78%
DL 524 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	LGA 16:50	28%	12%	1.6%	73%
DL 434 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	LGA 20:27	30%	14%	1.2%	64%
YX 4349 Republic	ATL 15:45	LGA 18:14	30%	14%	3.3%	no record
AA 4662 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 19:17	LGA 21:43	30%	10%	2.2%	57%
DL 433 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:49	31%	14%	1.5%	71%
DL 468 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	LGA 21:28	31%	12%	1.3%	67%
DL 997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	LGA 19:20	34%	16%	1.5%	68%
AA 4607 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 16:53	LGA 19:18	38%	20%	4.8%	50%
F9 3458 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:35	LGA 20:57	43%	23%	4.3%	34%
F9 3454 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:51	47%	25%	4.0%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON