Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2471 ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1130 ATL 17:51 → MCI 19:07 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2471 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	MCI 09:38	7%	1%	0.7%	93%
DL 2908 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	MCI 11:11	9%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2747 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	MCI 12:13	10%	2%	0.8%	85%
DL 1443 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:24	MCI 14:29	12%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 3023 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:08	MCI 21:24	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
WN 2417 Southwest	ATL 15:06	MCI 16:15	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2911 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:48	MCI 23:58	14%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 1660 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	MCI 16:30	16%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 1130 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:51	MCI 19:07	16%	3%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON