Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 309 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 309 ATL 08:02 → MCO 09:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2050 ATL 15:30 → MCO 17:08 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 309 Southwest	ATL 08:02	MCO 09:28	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	MCO 08:56	5%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	MCO 09:56	6%	2%	1.0%	86%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:25	MCO 10:57	7%	2%	1.2%	85%
F9 1242 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:36	MCO 08:21	7%	3%	1.6%	79%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	MCO 12:00	8%	2%	1.0%	85%
WN 363 Southwest	ATL 13:39	MCO 15:08	9%	3%	2.1%	no record
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:25	MCO 13:00	9%	2%	1.0%	81%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	MCO 14:32	11%	4%	1.6%	77%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:59	MCO 14:34	12%	5%	1.6%	73%
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	MCO 19:48	13%	5%	1.3%	57%
DL 1162 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:25	MCO 23:58	16%	5%	1.3%	68%
DL 1735 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:15	MCO 21:54	17%	5%	1.3%	61%
DL 1302 Delta	ATL 21:38	MCO 23:09	17%	4%	1.2%	no record
F9 3508 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:30	MCO 22:15	17%	9%	3.2%	49%
DL 2881 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	MCO 20:35	18%	5%	1.8%	62%
WN 463 Southwest	ATL 17:11	MCO 18:43	18%	4%	3.2%	no record
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	MCO 16:40	19%	5%	2.1%	63%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	MCO 18:50	19%	5%	1.9%	59%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:00	MCO 17:47	20%	6%	1.8%	57%
F9 2050 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:30	MCO 17:08	28%	11%	5.1%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON