Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 232 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 232 ATL 07:52 → MDW 08:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time Riskiest F9 2779 ATL 17:09 → MDW 18:28 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 232 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:52	MDW 08:56	5%	2%	1.1%	48%
WN 1332 Southwest	ATL 11:15	MDW 12:22	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 1063 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:09	MDW 10:05	10%	2%	1.1%	88%
DL 2417 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	MDW 11:56	11%	2%	0.9%	88%
WN 1893 Southwest	ATL 14:31	MDW 15:38	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1076 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	MDW 22:15	13%	4%	0.8%	77%
WN 236 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 18:40	MDW 19:42	14%	4%	0.7%	91%
DL 1728 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	MDW 16:15	15%	4%	0.9%	77%
F9 2779 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:09	MDW 18:28	25%	11%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON