Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2836 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2836 ATL 07:30 → MIA 09:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2272 ATL 18:34 → MIA 20:43 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	MIA 09:30	5%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 3190 American Flight history →	ATL 07:00	MIA 09:05	7%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	MIA 10:57	8%	2%	0.8%	84%
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	MIA 13:02	11%	3%	0.8%	82%
AA 2526 American Flight history →	ATL 09:00	MIA 11:07	12%	4%	0.8%	84%
F9 4406 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:32	MIA 10:40	14%	5%	1.0%	74%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	ATL 13:12	MIA 15:20	16%	6%	0.8%	86%
AA 526 American	ATL 11:21	MIA 13:16	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 1589 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:53	MIA 00:55	16%	6%	1.0%	69%
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:33	MIA 15:33	16%	5%	0.9%	63%
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:50	MIA 16:55	20%	6%	0.9%	63%
DL 1588 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:53	MIA 21:59	21%	7%	1.0%	66%
AA 1368 American Flight history →	ATL 17:09	MIA 19:12	22%	8%	1.1%	62%
DL 719 Delta	ATL 17:02	MIA 19:01	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 2272 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:34	MIA 20:43	26%	12%	1.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON