Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2999 ATL 08:05 → MKE 09:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2388 ATL 19:56 → MKE 21:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2999 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	MKE 09:07	5%	1%	0.5%	91%
DL 1151 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:51	MKE 11:53	6%	1%	0.5%	90%
DL 1246 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:53	MKE 13:50	6%	1%	0.5%	88%
DL 1268 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:52	MKE 23:56	8%	2%	0.5%	81%
DL 1206 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:29	MKE 16:31	8%	1%	0.5%	75%
DL 2388 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:56	MKE 21:05	8%	1%	0.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON