Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2668 ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2981 ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2668 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	MSP 09:00	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
DL 2960 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:44	MSP 10:18	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 9977 Delta	ATL 07:27	MSP 09:02	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2090 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:55	MSP 11:30	7%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 2901 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:17	MSP 13:50	9%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 2825 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:31	MSP 16:07	11%	3%	0.5%	85%
DL 1310 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	MSP 00:39	11%	4%	0.5%	78%
DL 2654 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:37	MSP 20:23	12%	4%	0.6%	71%
F9 3045 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:03	MSP 11:55	13%	8%	0.8%	64%
DL 2981 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:38	MSP 19:15	14%	4%	0.5%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON