Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1147 at 09:02 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 1147 ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 1595 ATL 16:58 → ORD 18:26 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:02	ORD 10:10	7%	2%	0.6%	80%
AA 1762 American	ATL 07:33	ORD 08:52	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1288 United	ATL 11:05	ORD 12:21	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1955 United	ATL 08:01	ORD 09:11	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 745 United Flight history →	ATL 13:21	ORD 14:43	8%	3%	0.5%	81%
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:22	ORD 12:34	8%	2%	0.5%	70%
AA 1041 American	ATL 10:53	ORD 12:05	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2620 American	ATL 12:00	ORD 13:21	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1199 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	ORD 23:53	9%	2%	0.6%	71%
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:02	ORD 14:14	11%	2%	0.5%	76%
AA 3059 American	ATL 14:14	ORD 15:31	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 516 United Flight history →	ATL 15:30	ORD 16:57	12%	3%	0.5%	74%
AA 2096 American	ATL 20:15	ORD 21:40	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2738 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	ORD 17:12	14%	3%	0.6%	62%
UA 2657 United	ATL 19:26	ORD 20:27	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 1441 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:22	ORD 11:49	15%	5%	0.9%	73%
UA 1850 United	ATL 17:13	ORD 18:19	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 616 American Flight history →	ATL 16:47	ORD 18:08	16%	5%	0.7%	75%
DL 1139 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:38	ORD 20:54	16%	3%	0.6%	60%
DL 2879 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:20	ORD 18:45	20%	3%	0.6%	49%
F9 1595 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:58	ORD 18:26	21%	7%	0.9%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON