Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3270 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3270 ATL 06:00 → PHL 08:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2552 ATL 16:00 → PHL 18:20 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3270 American Flight history →	ATL 06:00	PHL 08:10	4%	2%	0.8%	93%
AA 1428 American Flight history →	ATL 07:05	PHL 09:15	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 1100 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	PHL 09:31	6%	1%	0.7%	86%
DL 2270 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	PHL 10:57	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
YX 4755 Republic	ATL 12:03	PHL 14:22	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	PHL 13:24	10%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 2642 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:56	PHL 00:59	10%	3%	0.7%	78%
F9 1004 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 05:05	PHL 07:15	13%	4%	1.0%	71%
YX 4725 Republic	ATL 13:59	PHL 16:19	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2065 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:15	PHL 21:20	14%	4%	0.8%	65%
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	PHL 15:02	14%	3%	0.7%	73%
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:00	PHL 16:04	14%	4%	0.8%	69%
DL 1329 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:05	PHL 18:12	18%	5%	0.9%	62%
F9 1102 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:12	PHL 22:28	23%	11%	1.0%	47%
F9 2552 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:00	PHL 18:20	29%	13%	1.3%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON