Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1777 ATL 07:48 → PHX 09:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 836 ATL 17:59 → PHX 18:53 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1777 American Flight history →	ATL 07:48	PHX 09:00	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	PHX 09:01	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PHX 12:03	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 929 Delta	ATL 20:35	PHX 21:45	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 366 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	PHX 14:18	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
WN 540 Southwest	ATL 17:21	PHX 18:25	12%	3%	0.4%	no record
DL 836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	PHX 18:53	13%	3%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON