Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1363 ATL 09:03 → PIT 10:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3122 ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1363 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	PIT 10:45	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1345 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PIT 12:52	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 1353 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:08	PIT 15:50	7%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1351 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:04	PIT 00:50	7%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 1568 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	PIT 17:08	9%	3%	0.8%	84%
DL 2583 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:58	PIT 21:51	10%	3%	0.8%	76%
DL 3122 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:57	PIT 18:49	11%	3%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON