Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 571 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 571 ATL 07:00 → SFO 09:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 1447 ATL 16:55 → SFO 19:18 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 571 United Flight history →	ATL 07:00	SFO 09:05	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	SFO 10:20	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 672 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:59	SFO 11:55	14%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 656 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:55	SFO 23:49	15%	4%	0.6%	70%
DL 495 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	SFO 19:57	17%	5%	0.6%	51%
DL 823 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:54	SFO 15:49	18%	4%	0.6%	66%
UA 356 United	ATL 19:28	SFO 21:29	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:38	SFO 21:38	23%	5%	0.6%	58%
F9 1447 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:55	SFO 19:18	26%	11%	1.0%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	1h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 12:01 → SFO 13:26DL 689	7h 11m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	7h 16m	96%	78%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:05 → DEN 08:07WN 204	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:19 → SFO 10:52WN 4760	6h 47m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON