Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 830 ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 423 ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 830 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	SLC 10:14	5%	1%	0.6%	89%
DL 387 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	SLC 12:10	6%	1%	0.6%	92%
DL 653 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	SLC 20:02	6%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 663 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:56	SLC 13:50	6%	1%	0.6%	88%
DL 526 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	SLC 17:18	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 423 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	SLC 15:51	8%	2%	0.6%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:05 → DEN 08:07WN 204	55m Denver	DEN 09:02 → SLC 10:28WN 1680	5h 23m	91%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON