Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2997 ATL 00:04 → SRQ 01:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest DL 3104 ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 00:04	SRQ 01:33	5%	2%	1.8%	78%
DL 3196 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:17	SRQ 09:52	7%	1%	1.6%	94%
DL 3115 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	SRQ 15:24	10%	2%	1.2%	80%
DL 3109 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:17	SRQ 19:56	10%	3%	2.1%	76%
DL 3104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	SRQ 11:44	11%	2%	1.3%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON