Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 244 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 244 ATL 06:59 → STL 07:43 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4473 ATL 12:23 → STL 13:21 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 244 Southwest	ATL 06:59	STL 07:43	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 1571 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:43	STL 08:19	6%	1%	0.5%	92%
DL 1400 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:04	STL 09:43	7%	1%	0.5%	87%
WN 1906 Southwest	ATL 11:29	STL 12:12	7%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 566 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:40	STL 12:17	8%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 1403 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	STL 23:53	10%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 2833 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:15	STL 20:06	11%	2%	0.5%	76%
DL 543 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:17	STL 16:07	12%	2%	0.5%	81%
WN 2218 Southwest	ATL 19:17	STL 20:02	13%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 1393 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:10	STL 17:53	14%	2%	0.5%	79%
F9 4473 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 12:23	STL 13:21	18%	6%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON