Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2605 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2605 ATL 07:25 → TPA 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2912 ATL 17:14 → TPA 18:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	TPA 08:54	5%	1%	1.0%	93%
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:38	TPA 10:07	7%	1%	0.9%	91%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	TPA 11:29	8%	2%	1.0%	82%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:46	TPA 14:13	9%	2%	0.9%	80%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	TPA 12:39	10%	2%	1.2%	85%
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:01	TPA 15:35	10%	3%	0.9%	75%
DL 1560 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	TPA 00:29	11%	3%	0.9%	72%
DL 1457 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:22	TPA 19:54	11%	4%	1.0%	69%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	TPA 16:58	12%	3%	1.0%	70%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:20	TPA 17:55	12%	3%	1.2%	74%
WN 1370 Southwest	ATL 18:14	TPA 19:45	13%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 3135 Delta	ATL 19:57	TPA 21:30	13%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 1594 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:22	TPA 18:57	15%	4%	1.2%	66%
F9 3782 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:03	TPA 11:40	15%	4%	1.8%	72%
F9 3054 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:00	TPA 22:44	20%	8%	2.1%	60%
F9 2912 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:14	TPA 18:52	22%	9%	2.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON