Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	3h 45m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 57m	99%	85%
United Details →	ATL 13:21 → ORD 14:43UA 745	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 18:24 → TVC 20:32UA 677	7h 11m	99%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON