Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5209 ATL 12:18 → TYS 13:21 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2571 ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5209 Endeavor	ATL 12:18	TYS 13:21	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 1817 Delta	ATL 08:32	TYS 09:35	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1743 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	TYS 11:10	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 5203 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 19:34	TYS 20:37	6%	2%	0.8%	73%
DL 1148 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:52	TYS 14:48	7%	2%	0.6%	80%
9E 5242 Endeavor	ATL 17:51	TYS 18:54	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 3072 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	TYS 00:02	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2571 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:16	TYS 17:16	10%	2%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON