Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 1436 at 05:31, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1436 Delta Flight history →	ATW 05:31	ATL 08:43	5%	2%	0.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ATW 05:36 → ORD 07:05AA 3721 · flown by Envoy	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 08:20 → ATL 11:33AA 851	4h 57m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	6h 20m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 16:50 → ATL 18:55DL 1467	6h 46m	98%	88%
American Details →	ATW 09:47 → DFW 12:19AA 4189 · flown by Envoy	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:27 → ATL 16:48AA 2398	6h 01m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON