tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OH 5470 at 17:20, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5470 PSA ATW 17:20 CLT 20:37 16% 5% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190 4h 55m 98% 92%
AmericanDetails → ATW 05:36 → ORD 07:05AA 3721 · flown by Envoy 2h 00m Chicago ORD 09:05 → CLT 12:12AA 2080 5h 36m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Detroit DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684 4h 24m 95% 90%
DeltaDetails → ATW 14:05 → DTW 16:30DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor 3h 35m Detroit DTW 20:05 → CLT 21:57DL 2352 6h 52m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → ATW 09:47 → DFW 12:19AA 4189 · flown by Envoy 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:44 → CLT 18:37AA 3227 7h 50m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor 3h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819 6h 57m 92% 82%
DeltaDetails → ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor 1h 42m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → CLT 18:02DL 2820 5h 35m 83% 76%
UnitedDetails → ATW 14:40 → ORD 16:00UA 4383 · flown by GoJet 2h 15m Chicago ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748 5h 49m 85% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet 1h 10m Chicago ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748 4h 45m 71% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON