tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 1248 at 08:50, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1248 United ATW 08:50 DEN 10:41 7% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Detroit DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648 7h 45m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → ATW 05:36 → ORD 07:05AA 3721 · flown by Envoy 2h 42m Chicago ORD 09:47 → DEN 11:46AA 2363 7h 10m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 6h 34m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Detroit DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431 7h 18m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → ATW 12:32 → ORD 13:56UA 4757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 16m Chicago ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 6h 41m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → ATW 09:47 → DFW 12:19AA 4189 · flown by Envoy 3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:13 → DEN 17:19AA 1322 8h 32m 99% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON