Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 4189 at 09:47, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4189 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 09:47	DFW 12:19	11%	4%	0.8%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	7h 13m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 12:45 → DFW 14:32DL 1041	7h 32m	99%	81%
United Details →	ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 13:05 → DFW 15:48UA 2290	7h 33m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 10:03 → DFW 12:29DL 2970	6h 29m	90%	77%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 14:47 → DFW 17:16DL 2971	5h 49m	89%	76%
United Details →	ATW 12:24 → ORD 13:46UA 4170 · flown by GoJet	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793	5h 58m	97%	72%
American Details →	ATW 05:36 → ORD 07:05AA 3721 · flown by Envoy	3h 57m Chicago	ORD 11:02 → DFW 13:37AA 1106	8h 01m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Detroit	DTW 15:58 → DFW 17:41DL 1441	6h 32m	94%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON