tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, G4 1559 at 11:13, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
G4 1559 Allegiant ATW 11:13 LAS 13:20 7% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 31m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 8h 28m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Detroit DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766 8h 42m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → ATW 12:32 → ORD 13:56UA 4757 · flown by SkyWest 1h 58m Chicago ORD 15:54 → LAS 17:57UA 1875 7h 25m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → ATW 05:36 → ORD 07:05AA 3721 · flown by Envoy 3h 00m Chicago ORD 10:05 → LAS 12:05AA 1497 8h 29m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → ATW 09:47 → DFW 12:19AA 4189 · flown by Envoy 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:20 → LAS 16:25AA 1573 8h 38m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON