Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3721 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 3721 ATW 05:36 → ORD 07:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest OO 4681 ATW 14:36 → ORD 15:48 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3721 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 05:36	ORD 07:05	6%	2%	0.9%	82%
OO 5340 SkyWest	ATW 06:38	ORD 07:51	11%	5%	1.0%	no record
OO 4648 SkyWest	ATW 08:12	ORD 09:37	11%	6%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3340 Envoy	ATW 11:29	ORD 12:43	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
OO 4669 SkyWest	ATW 09:58	ORD 11:10	14%	6%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3341 Envoy	ATW 18:28	ORD 19:42	14%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 4757 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 12:32	ORD 13:56	15%	6%	0.9%	80%
OO 4681 SkyWest	ATW 14:36	ORD 15:48	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 4170 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 12:24	ORD 13:46	12%	5%	1.6%	88%
UA 4190 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 08:15	ORD 09:45	14%	7%	0.0%	86%
UA 4383 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 14:40	ORD 15:59	36%	19%	8.9%	64%
UA 4391 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 15:44	ORD 17:05	40%	11%	5.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON