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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 08:31, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Amarillo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 08:31 → LAS 09:28WN 323 1h 21m Las Vegas LAS 10:49 → AMA 14:50WN 4109 6h 19m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:26 → AMA 09:49AA 3920 · flown by Envoy 4h 48m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 2h 57m Houston IAH 09:30 → AMA 11:21UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 51m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → AUS 09:25 → DFW 10:47AA 862 3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:35 → AMA 16:00AA 3613 · flown by Envoy 6h 35m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → AUS 10:40 → DFW 12:03AA 794 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:22 → AMA 14:47AA 3383 · flown by Envoy 4h 07m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 20m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → AUS 11:26 → DEN 12:45UA 779 1h 25m Denver DEN 14:10 → AMA 16:43UA 5233 · flown by SkyWest 5h 17m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → AUS 15:15 → DFW 16:38AA 2198 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:59 → AMA 21:23AA 3607 · flown by Envoy 6h 08m 96% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON