Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1344 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1344 AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4702 AUS 18:38 → ATL 22:09 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1344 Delta Flight history →	AUS 05:25	ATL 08:47	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 3197 Southwest	AUS 09:34	ATL 12:52	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 1258 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:25	ATL 09:45	3%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	AUS 10:35	ATL 13:54	3%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2899 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	ATL 11:26	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2886 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:09	ATL 15:35	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:31	ATL 17:00	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:55	ATL 20:29	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:00	ATL 18:25	8%	3%	0.6%	79%
WN 2287 Southwest	AUS 14:44	ATL 18:01	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2802 Southwest	AUS 19:39	ATL 22:55	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4702 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 18:38	ATL 22:09	25%	8%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON