Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 2–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3216 AUS 06:35 → DAL 07:39 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 370 AUS 18:09 → DAL 19:18 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3216 Southwest	AUS 06:35	DAL 07:39	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 967 Southwest	AUS 08:24	DAL 09:29	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3671 Southwest	AUS 10:31	DAL 11:35	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 986 Southwest	AUS 13:01	DAL 14:06	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 442 Southwest	AUS 14:51	DAL 15:56	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 668 Southwest	AUS 20:17	DAL 21:22	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1304 Southwest	AUS 16:48	DAL 17:47	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 4425 Southwest	AUS 16:45	DAL 17:44	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 370 Southwest	AUS 18:09	DAL 19:18	12%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON