tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4421 Southwest AUS 12:35 DCA 16:55 13% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29DL 2098 3h 16m Boston BOS 15:45 → DCA 17:49DL 5689 · flown by Republic 9h 29m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 38m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 1h 14m Houston IAH 07:47 → DCA 12:04UA 512 5h 34m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 32m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 8h 20m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 6h 22m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 41m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878 3h 06m Chicago ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752 8h 12m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 7h 53m 100% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON