Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 361 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day UA 361 AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 3669 AUS 16:49 → DEN 18:14 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 361 United Flight history →	AUS 05:39	DEN 06:58	2%	1%	0.5%	97%
WN 285 Southwest	AUS 07:00	DEN 08:11	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 189 Southwest	AUS 09:24	DEN 10:37	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:25	DEN 08:48	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 779 United Flight history →	AUS 11:26	DEN 12:45	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 333 Southwest	AUS 11:17	DEN 12:29	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 595 United Flight history →	AUS 08:30	DEN 09:49	5%	2%	0.5%	89%
UA 1541 United Flight history →	AUS 12:55	DEN 14:14	7%	3%	0.5%	96%
WN 258 Southwest	AUS 13:06	DEN 14:18	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2447 United Flight history →	AUS 14:45	DEN 16:22	9%	3%	0.5%	82%
WN 4777 Southwest	AUS 15:47	DEN 16:59	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 291 Southwest	AUS 18:25	DEN 19:37	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 439 United Flight history →	AUS 18:29	DEN 20:00	13%	4%	0.6%	68%
DL 3669 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 16:49	DEN 18:14	14%	3%	0.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON