Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2563 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2563 AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2740 AUS 18:02 → DFW 19:08 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2563 American Flight history →	AUS 05:01	DFW 06:12	4%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 579 American Flight history →	AUS 06:00	DFW 07:19	5%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 2196 American Flight history →	AUS 07:00	DFW 08:28	6%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 615 American Flight history →	AUS 11:25	DFW 12:42	8%	6%	0.7%	80%
AA 794 American Flight history →	AUS 10:40	DFW 12:03	8%	6%	0.7%	80%
AA 862 American Flight history →	AUS 09:25	DFW 10:47	9%	5%	0.7%	66%
AA 1067 American	AUS 08:01	DFW 09:27	10%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 20:40	DFW 21:53	10%	4%	1.0%	74%
AA 1070 American	AUS 12:59	DFW 14:17	12%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1658 American Flight history →	AUS 17:01	DFW 18:51	14%	6%	0.8%	89%
AA 1852 American	AUS 14:09	DFW 15:24	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2198 American Flight history →	AUS 15:15	DFW 16:38	15%	7%	0.8%	65%
MQ 4245 Envoy	AUS 16:37	DFW 17:18	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2103 American	AUS 18:58	DFW 20:13	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1146 American	AUS 18:37	DFW 19:52	21%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 2740 American	AUS 18:02	DFW 19:08	24%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON